Arizona Real Estate and Community News

Dec. 1, 2025

Beyond the Heat: A Buyer's Guide to the Best West Valley Neighborhoods for Celebrating Arizona's "Winter"

Let’s be honest, the rest of the country is starting to bundle up. Right now, our friends in the Midwest are likely digging their cars out of a snowbank or shivering in 20-degree weather. Meanwhile, here in the West Valley, we're debating whether a light sweater is even necessary for our morning coffee on the patio.

Comparison of a snowy Chicago street versus a sunny backyard patio in a Peoria, Arizona home during winter.

Welcome to Arizona's "winter"—the absolute best time of year to fall in love with a new community. The sun is shining, the temperatures are in the perfect 60s and 70s, and the entire West Valley comes alive with holiday spirit and outdoor activities. If you’re thinking of making a move, there’s no better time to explore what our incredible neighborhoods have to offer.

 

Peoria & Glendale: Where Community & Holiday Cheer Shine Bright

 

When the sun sets, the West Valley doesn't just go dark; it sparkles. Cities like Peoria and Glendale are famous for their community spirit, and it’s never more apparent than during the holidays. Imagine strolling through neighborhoods where every house is decked out in lights, or enjoying a festive evening at a local holiday market without having to worry about freezing your nose off.

A single-story home in Peoria, AZ, decorated with Christmas lights, including a lit saguaro cactus at night.

These are communities designed for connection. You'll find fantastic parks, top-rated schools, and a friendly vibe that makes you feel right at home. It’s the perfect setting for creating new traditions with your family.

 

🌟 Featured Listing Spotlight 🌟

 

Speaking of picture-perfect homes, check out this stunning property in the heart of the West Valley. This is the kind of home where you can host the ultimate holiday gathering or simply enjoy a quiet evening in your beautiful backyard.

Exterior of a modern two-story home for sale in Peoria, Arizona, 8535 W Maya Dr, featuring desert landscaping.

 

To see more details and photos of our current featured listings, visit our Featured Listings page.

 

Goodyear & Buckeye: The Ultimate Outdoor Lifestyle

 

One of the biggest perks of an Arizona winter is that it’s the prime season for outdoor adventure. Forget hibernating! In growing communities like Goodyear and Buckeye, your backyard is a gateway to hiking, biking, and exploring. With the stunning White Tank Mountains as your backdrop, you have endless trails to conquer every weekend.

 

Family hiking on a sunlit trail in the White Tank Mountains near Goodyear, Arizona real estate.

 

These areas are booming with new construction, offering modern homes with all the latest features. It's a chance to get in on the ground floor of a vibrant, active community that thrives year-round.

 

🌟 Featured Listing Spotlight 🌟

 

Looking for a brand-new home that fits your active lifestyle? This featured listing offers spacious living, modern design, and easy access to all the outdoor recreation the West Valley is known for.

Spacious, modern kitchen interior in a new construction home for sale in Surprise, Arizona.

Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity! Contact us today to schedule a viewing.

 

Surprise & The Entertainment Districts: Big Fun, All Year Round

 

For those who love being close to the action, the neighborhoods around Surprise and Glendale's sports and entertainment districts are a dream come true. From catching a game at State Farm Stadium to enjoying a concert or a night out at Westgate Entertainment District, there's always something exciting happening.

Wide-angle view of State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ, on a sunny winter day.

And the best part? You can enjoy it all without the hassle of a heavy winter coat. This is the ideal area for anyone who wants a dynamic lifestyle with world-class amenities right at their doorstep. 

 

 

Why Buy Now?

While the weather is a huge plus, there’s a practical reason to buy in December, too. The holiday season is often a sweet spot in the Phoenix real estate market.

  • Less Competition: You'll typically find fewer competing buyers than in the spring frenzy.

  • Motivated Sellers: Sellers who are listing their homes now are often highly motivated.

This means you have a unique opportunity to secure your dream home in the West Valley without a bidding war and potentially with more negotiating power.

 

Ready to Find Your Spot in the Sun?

 

Don't spend another winter dreaming of sunshine while shoveling snow. The Radiant Group is here to help you find the perfect West Valley home that matches your lifestyle. Whether you're a first-time buyer, an investor, or looking to relocate, our team is ready to make your real estate journey shine.

Contact us today at (623) 521-6980 or start your home search on our website!

Posted in Buying a Home
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Nov. 24, 2025

A Thanksgiving Message from Jerry & John: Why Phoenix Buyers & Sellers Should Be Thankful for a Great Agent in 2025

 

 

A Thanksgiving Message from Jerry & John at Radiant Group Homes

Giving Thanks for You… and Why We’re Even More Grateful for the Gift of Professional Representation in 2025

Happy Thanksgiving, Phoenix families!

This is Jerry Cravens and John Theis, your neighbors and partners at Radiant Group Homes. As we fire up the smoker for turkey and watch the desert sun dip behind the mountains, our hearts are overflowing with gratitude—for the clients who’ve become friends, for the keys we’ve placed in trembling first-time-buyer hands, and for the families who trusted us to sell the homes where they raised their kids. You are the reason we love what we do.

This year, more than ever, we’re thankful for the chance to protect and guide you through one of life’s biggest financial decisions—especially now, in a post-Sitzer/Burnett world that’s trickier than ever to navigate alone.

So grab a second helping of pumpkin pie, settle in, and let us share why we’re raising a glass to YOU… and why having an experienced agent at your side is something every buyer and seller in Phoenix should be thankful for this season.

We’re Thankful for You – Our Radiant Group Homes Family

From the young couple who closed on their first Glendale townhome last month to the empty-nesters in Scottsdale who just handed the keys to their forever home to another growing family—you make every long day worth it. Jerry still gets misty-eyed when he hands over keys, and John still does a little happy dance in the driveway when an offer gets accepted above asking. That’s the magic of real estate in the Valley of the Sun, and you are the heart of it.

We’re Thankful for Clarity in a Changing Market

The Sitzer/Burnett NAR settlement (finalized January 2025) changed everything:

  • No more automatic buyer-agent commission offers on the MLS
  • Mandatory written buyer-broker agreements before touring homes
  • Commissions now fully negotiable—and often paid directly by the buyer if the seller won’t cover

Why We’re Especially Thankful Buyers & Sellers Still Have Us in Their Corner

In Phoenix’s low-inventory market (median price ≈ $460K this November), going it alone can feel like showing up to Thanksgiving with just a plastic fork. Here’s the proof:


2025 Phoenix Metro Data: Homes sold with a professional agent net $95,000–$125,000 more after commission than FSBO sales.
Source: Arizona Regional MLS + NAR 2025 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers – analyzed by Radiant Group Homes

Additional hard truths from 2025:

  • FSBO sellers remain the #1 most-litigated group (disclosure lawsuits can cost $20K–$100K+)
  • Unrepresented buyers are now routinely paying 2–3% out of pocket ($9K–$14K) when sellers refuse to cover the buyer agent fee
  • Many listing agents quietly avoid unrepresented buyers to limit liability—meaning you see fewer homes and compete with one hand tied

We’ve seen it firsthand: One young family almost lost their dream Peoria home because they thought “saving the commission” was smarter—until they realized they’d owe $12K cash at closing with no one fighting for repairs or credits. John and I stepped in, negotiated seller-paid commission plus $8K in closing costs. That’s the Thanksgiving-win we live for.

Our Thanksgiving Promise to You

At Radiant Group Homes, John and I promise:

  1. 100% fee transparency from the very first call
  2. Flexible buyer agreements that fit your budget (Flat Fee, reduced %, or traditional)
  3. Fierce negotiation to protect your wallet and your peace of mind

Because a great agent doesn’t cost money—they make you money.

Let’s Make Your Next Chapter Something to Be Thankful For

If 2026 is your year to finally buy in Chandler, upsize in Gilbert, or downsize to a North Scottsdale patio home, let’s talk turkey!

Schedule your no-pressure, post-Thanksgiving coffee chat with Jerry or John.
We’ll bring the pumpkin spice lattes and zero-BS answers.

📅 Book Your Free Thanksgiving Consult
or text/call us directly: John at (623)202-6044 or Jerry at (623) 521-6980

From our family to yours—thank you for trusting us with your stories, your dreams, and your keys.
May your Thanksgiving be filled with love, laughter, and way too much food… and may your next real estate journey be just as joyful.

With gratitude,
Jerry Cravens & John Theis
Radiant Group Homes – Proudly serving Phoenix, Surprise, Peoria, Goodyear, Glendale & beyond
🦃🏡🌵 Happy Thanksgiving!

P.S. Drop your favorite Thanksgiving real estate memory in the comments—we read every single one!

Posted in Community News
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Nov. 18, 2025

Why the West Valley Phoenix Housing Market in 2026 Will Be a Goldmine for Buyers and Investors — But Act Before This Window Closes

Current trends, 2026 price forecasts, top suburbs, and why waiting could cost you thousands

 

How the West Valley evolved into hotbed for innovation and growth ...

 

With mortgage rates stabilizing around 6-6.5% and inventory at its highest level in years as of November 2025, thousands of buyers and investors are asking: "Is now the time to buy in Phoenix — or should I wait for 2026?"

The answer? The West Valley in late 2025 offers the best buyer leverage we'll see for years. Forecasts for 2026 show easing rates sparking renewed competition, modest price growth of 3-5%, and shrinking inventory as more sidelined buyers jump back in. If you're serious about securing an affordable home in one of America's fastest-growing regions, the next few months represent a rare "sweet spot" before the market tightens again.

At Radiant Group Homes, we've helped hundreds of clients navigate Phoenix-area opportunities — here's everything you need to know about why the West Valley is poised for strong gains in 2026... and why acting now could save you tens of thousands.

West Valley Phoenix Market Snapshot – November 2025 Update (And What It Means for 2026)

Right now, the West Valley (Glendale, Peoria, Surprise, Avondale, Goodyear, Buckeye) remains one of the most affordable and buyer-friendly pockets of metro Phoenix:

  • Metro-wide median home price: ~$450,000
  • West Valley medians: $390,000–$455,000 (still 10-20% below East Valley and Scottsdale)
  • Inventory: 4.5–5.5 months supply — the highest since 2017, giving buyers real negotiating power
  • Days on market: 65–85 (plenty of time to shop and compare)
  • Price growth forecast for 2026: +3% to +5% across most forecasts (Zillow, NAR, local analysts)

 

 

City/Suburb Median Price (Nov 2025 est.) 2026 Projected Growth Why It Will Shine in 2026
Buckeye ~$385,000 +4-6% Fastest-growing city in America; massive new infrastructure
Surprise ~$440,000 +3-5% New retail/resort developments; strong 55+ appeal
Goodyear ~$465,000 +4% Job boom (Amazon, Microsoft hubs); TSMC spillover
Peoria ~$410,000 +3% Established amenities; excellent schools & parks
Glendale ~$395,000 +3-4% Sports/entertainment district; affordable entry point
Verrado (Buckeye) ~$550,000+ +5% Master-planned luxury feel; high-demand 55+ sections

The market is perfectly balanced today — but experts agree 2026 will tilt back toward sellers as rates dip toward 6% or lower and pent-up demand returns.

Why 2026 Will Favor Sellers Again (And Why Buyers Should Move NOW)

  1. Mortgage Rates Are Expected to Ease Fannie Mae, NAR, and MBA all forecast 30-year rates settling around 6.2% by late 2026. Even a 0.5% drop unlocks hundreds of thousands of locked-in homeowners and first-time buyers — increasing competition and pushing prices higher.

 

2026 Housing Market Outlook | Sierra Vista, AZ Real Estate

 

  1. Population Growth Isn't Slowing Metro Phoenix is on track to add nearly 1 million residents over the next decade. The West Valley will capture the majority, with Buckeye alone projected to triple in size.

 

10 Things To Know About Phoenix In The Future - PHOENIX magazine

 

  1. Senior and Active-Adult Migration Is Accelerating Arizona's 55+ population is exploding, and the West Valley leads with iconic communities like Sun City, Sun City West, Peoria's Westbrook Village, and new developments in Verrado and Victory at PebbleCreek. Retirees from California, the Midwest, and Canada are snapping up homes — many with cash — creating pockets of intense demand.
  2. Inventory Will Tighten Today's 25,000+ active listings across Greater Phoenix represent peak supply. As rates fall and confidence returns, sellers who were waiting will list — but buyers will absorb that new inventory faster than it arrives.

Bottom line: The modest 3-5% appreciation forecasted for 2026 looks small... until you realize waiting just 12 months could add $15,000–$25,000 to the price of a $450,000 home — plus higher competition and potentially higher rates if inflation surprises.

Top 5 West Valley Locations Poised for Strongest 2026 Gains

  1. Buckeye – Lowest entry prices + explosive growth = highest upside

 

Huge Teravalis housing development opens in booming Buckeye ...

 

  1. Surprise – New retail, resorts, and 55+ inventory driving demand

 

The Grand (Sun City Grand), 45+ Community in Surprise AZ

 

  1. Goodyear/Avondale – Proximity to major employers and Luke AFB

 

Palm Valley, Goodyear, AZ Homes with Pools | Redfin

 

  1. Peoria – Tree-lined neighborhoods, top schools, and mature amenities
  2. Verrado – Premium master-planned lifestyle with mountain views

 

Verrado - Charming Luxury Community in Buckeye, Arizona ...

 

Risks in 2026 — And How to Protect Yourself

  • Slightly higher insurance costs in far-west areas
  • Water sustainability concerns (already priced in; new developments must prove 100-year supply)
  • Potential for renewed bidding wars in the hottest pockets

The fix? Work with local experts who know off-market deals, new construction incentives, and neighborhoods before they hit the mainstream.

Is Late 2025/Early 2026 the Time to Buy in the West Valley? YES — If You Want the Best Deal

Forecasts are clear: 2026 brings steady appreciation, lower rates, and shrinking buyer leverage. The West Valley's combination of affordability, growth, and lifestyle makes it one of the smartest places in America to buy right now.

Waiting for "perfect" conditions often means paying more and competing harder.

Ready to secure your piece of the West Valley before the 2026 rush? Contact Radiant Group Homes today for a free 2026 market consultation, current off-market listings, and personalized suburb recommendations. Let's find your ideal home while the window is wide open.

Schedule your call now — inventory this good won't last forever.

Contact Us | Information on Buying | Free Home Valuation

 

Radiant Group Homes – Your West Valley Phoenix Experts Serving Glendale, Peoria, Surprise, Goodyear, Buckeye & Beyond

Posted in Buying a Home, Market Updates, Real Estate News, Selling Your Home
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Nov. 11, 2025

Why Every Phoenix Home Buyer Should Talk to a Realtor First – Insights from Radiant Group Homes

Why Every Phoenix Home Buyer Should Talk to a Realtor First – Insights from Radiant Group Homes

By Jerry Cravens and John Theis, Co-Owners of Radiant Group Homes | November 11, 2025

I (Jerry Cravens) was at the housewarming party on Saturday of a client who bought her home back in May. I loved seeing how she'd turned the house into her home, with personal touches that made it truly hers. We chatted about the journey, including how my partner John attended the signing of the closing documents with her while I was welcoming the birth of my first grandchild. Moments like these remind me why, as local Realtors, our clients often become lifelong friends—sharing in life's milestones and building connections that go beyond the transaction. Surrounded by her friends in their mid-20s to early 30s, the talk naturally turned to real estate: dreams of owning in vibrant Phoenix neighborhoods like Peoria or Scottsdale, but also debates on whether renting is easier since landlords handle maintenance. As someone with over 20 years in the industry, I've seen this play out time and again, and one thing stands out: Starting your home-buying process by talking to a trusted Realtor like us at Radiant Group Homes isn't just smart—it's the key to a smoother, more rewarding experience.

 

Already Friends | RedCircle

 

At Radiant Group Homes, founded in 2008 and built on family values and unwavering customer service, we've helped over 1,000 families navigate Arizona's dynamic real estate market, closing deals worth more than $170 million. Our motto, "Where our Agents Shine for You," reflects our commitment to making the process seamless. But why should you, as a potential buyer, reach out to us before diving into online listings or loan pre-approvals? Let's break it down with real-world insights tailored to Phoenix's unique market.

1. Unlock a Network of Trusted Professionals Tailored to Your Needs

The home-buying process isn't a solo adventure—it's a team effort. Over the years, we've cultivated strong relationships with top local experts, from loan officers and mortgage brokers to home inspectors, title and escrow officers, home warranty companies, and even reliable moving services. This isn't about generic referrals; it's about matching you with pros who align with your specific goals.

For example, instead of falling for online "teaser rates" that might not fit your credit profile or long-term plans, we connect you with mortgage brokers who shop multiple programs to find the best fit. In Phoenix's competitive market, where rates are projected to fluctuate into 2026, this can mean the difference between affording your dream home or settling for less. Our network ensures you're not just buying a house—you're building a support system that handles everything from inspections to warranties, saving you time and avoiding costly surprises.

 

36+ Thousand Real Estate Team Work Royalty-Free Images, Stock ...

 

2. Get Personalized Guidance on Buying vs. Renting

We hear it all the time from young professionals: "Why buy when renting means no repairs?" It's a valid point, but let's crunch the numbers. In Phoenix, rents have risen steadily, often outpacing wage growth, while homeownership builds equity and offers tax benefits. A Realtor like us at Radiant Group Homes can run custom comparisons, showing how buying now—especially with stable demand as per the Cromford Index—locks in predictability amid Arizona's growing economy.

For first-time buyers aged 25-30, we debunk myths with data: Maintenance costs average 1-2% of home value annually, but smart warranties (via our partners) minimize out-of-pocket expenses. Plus, owning means no more landlord rules—customize your space in trendy areas like Downtown Phoenix or Tempe. We've seen clients transition from renters to owners and never look back, gaining wealth through appreciation in a market that's more stable now than the volatile 2005-2015 era.

 

Ain't No Mountain High Enough — UPportunity, Inc.

 

3. Avoid Common Pitfalls with Expert Market Insights

Phoenix real estate moves fast. Without a Realtor, you might miss off-market gems or overpay due to emotional bidding. We provide real-time data on trends, like seasonal advantages (buying in fall/winter for cooler showings and fewer competitors), drawing from our deep Arizona expertise. Whether it's forecasting 2026 mortgage rates or analyzing historical patterns from the 1990s, our insights help you time your move perfectly.

As co-owners Jerry Cravens and John Theis, we've navigated everything from corporate relocations to investor flips. Our team specializes in first-time buyers, ensuring you're educated on every step—from pre-approval to closing—without the overwhelm.

 

4+ Thousand New Home Exterior Moving Royalty-Free Images ...

 

 

Ready to start? Don't go it alone. Contact Radiant Group Homes today for a no-obligation chat. Visit radiantgrouphomes.com or message us on X @TheRadiantGroup to schedule your free consultation. Let's make your Phoenix homeownership dream a reality—where our agents shine for you!

Posted in Buying a Home
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Nov. 3, 2025

Decoding Cromford Demand Index Trends: Timing Your Phoenix Home Buy or Sell for Maximum Advantage

At Radiant Group Homes, we've dedicated our partnership to demystifying the Phoenix real estate landscape for families like yours. Today, we're diving deep into the Cromford Demand Index trends—a key indicator that reveals buyer momentum in our market. Drawing from the latest Cromford Report data as of October 2025 and insights from Mortgage News Daily, we'll analyze these trends, build compelling cases for acting in November or December versus waiting for spring, and pinpoint who stands to gain most by holding off. As always, we'll weave in why fall through spring remains the favorite season for most Phoenix residents, with its mild weather inviting endless outdoor escapades across Arizona's stunning terrain.

Unpacking the Cromford Demand Index: Historical and Current Trends

The Cromford Demand Index, represented by the red line in the Supply and Demand Index chart, measures buyer activity relative to historical norms in the Arizona Regional MLS, where 100 is normal, and 90-110 is balanced. Over the past two decades, this index has painted a picture of dramatic cycles driven by economic shifts, pandemics, and seasonal patterns.

From 2001 to 2003, demand hovered around normal levels (near 100), reflecting a stable market. Then came the mid-2000s boom: demand surged to peaks over 200 by 2005-2006, fueled by easy credit and speculation. The 2007-2008 crash sent it plummeting below 50, where it languished through 2011 amid foreclosures and economic woes. Recovery kicked in sharply in 2012, pushing demand back above 150 and sustaining high levels (often 150-200) through 2019 as the economy rebounded.

The 2020-2021 COVID era supercharged demand to record highs near 250, with remote work and low rates drawing buyers en masse. But 2022 brought a stark reversal—demand cratered below 50 as interest rates rose and inflation bit. In 2023, it briefly rebounded toward 100 before dipping again. Fast-forward to 2024-2025: demand has fluctuated in the 50-80 range, well below normal, indicating a cooler market with subdued buyer interest. As of October 2025, it's showing a slight uptick but remains under 100, suggesting ongoing caution among buyers.

Seasonally, the index reveals consistent patterns: demand often softens in late fall and winter (November-December dips) due to holidays and weather elsewhere drawing focus, then ramps up in spring (March-May peaks) with tax refunds, school planning, and relocations. Cross-referencing with the Listings Under Contract chart (weekly data from 2005-2025), we see contracts peaking in spring across years, aligning with higher demand. The Active Listings chart shows inventory building slightly toward year-end, while Months of Supply (around 2-4 months recently) tightens in spring, underscoring seasonal demand surges.

Complementing this, Mortgage News Daily's August 2025 data shows U.S. median home prices at $427,800 (up 1.91% YoY but down 0.97% MoM), and West region at $636,600 (up 0.55% YoY, up 0.14% MoM). In Phoenix, this translates to modest growth amid low demand, with potential for spring acceleration.

These trends signal opportunity—whether you're buying or selling, timing matters.

Why Jump In Now: Capitalizing on Low Demand for Quick Wins

If the current sub-normal Demand Index (around 80 in October 2025) tells us anything, it's that November and December offer a buyer's playground with less frenzy. With demand softer, as evidenced by the red line's recent lows and fewer listings under contract (dipping toward year-end in the chart), sellers face motivated buyers ready to close fast—perhaps for tax benefits or holiday moves. But buyers? You gain leverage: more negotiating power on prices, concessions, or inspections in a market where inventory hovers steady (Active Listings chart shows ~15,000-20,000 for 2025).

We see this as ideal for those needing speed—close before the new year and settle in just as Phoenix's fall weather hits its stride, with temps in the 70s perfect for teeing off at TPC Scottsdale or wandering the Desert Botanical Garden's luminous trails.

 

8 Outdoor Activities to Do When Visiting Scottsdale in Winter ...

 

Acting now benefits buyers most in this low-demand phase, potentially locking in deals before any spring upswing.

The Power of Patience: Riding the Spring Demand Wave

Conversely, historical trends scream "wait for spring" if you can. The Demand Index consistently climbs post-winter, often surpassing 100 as buyers flood back—think the red line's upward wiggles in early-year data across cycles. By March-May, listings under contract spike (as seen in multi-year overlays), supply tightens (Months of Supply dropping below 3), and competition heats up, driving prices higher. Mortgage News Daily's modest YoY gains hint at building momentum; in Phoenix, this could mean 5-10% appreciation in peak months, per past patterns.

For sellers, this surge means more offers and top-dollar bids. Buyers get expanded choices as inventory grows slightly pre-spring (Active Listings trending up from January). Waiting lets you align with the market's natural rhythm, maximizing returns.

Plus, it gives you more time to savor why fall to spring is Arizona's sweet spot—crisp mornings for hiking Camelback Mountain, clear skies over Sonoran Preserve trails, and that unbeatable desert vibe without summer's scorch.

 

 

In our view, spring amplifies outcomes for patient players.

Who Gains More from Waiting? Sellers Take the Crown, But Buyers Beware

Crunching the trends, we conclude sellers benefit more by waiting until spring. The Demand Index's historical spring boosts (often 20-50% higher than winter lows) create bidding fervor, faster sales, and premium prices—especially in a 2025 market recovering from sub-normal levels. If profit is your goal, hold for that red-line ascent.

Buyers, however, might regret delays: rising demand could inflate costs, though more options emerge. If value hunting is key, November-December's softer index favors you now. Phoenix's market stays seller-leaning overall (supply blue line often below demand), but current lows offer balance.

Why deliberate at all? Because fall to spring transforms Phoenix into paradise—stargazing under vast skies, festivals like the Arizona Renaissance Faire, or simply biking canals in perfect weather.

 

 

 

At Radiant Group Homes, we're your trusted partners. Whether analyzing indices or timing your move, visit www.radiantgrouphomes.com or reach out for tailored advice. Let's turn these trends into your success story!

Posted in Market Updates
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Oct. 27, 2025

Phoenix Mortgage Rates in 2026: Time to Buy Before Prices Climb Higher?

Hey folks, we're John Theis and Jerry Cravens, brother-in-laws and co-owners of Radiant Group Homes (check us out at www.radiantgrouphomes.com). With over 20 years each navigating the ups and downs of the Phoenix Metro market, we've seen booms, busts, and everything in between—from the wild ride of the mid-2000s to the post-pandemic frenzy. At Radiant Group Homes, we've helped countless families build wealth through smart home purchases. Today, we're diving into what mortgage rates might look like in 2026 for our Greater Phoenix residential housing scene. More importantly, we'll break down why waiting for rates to drop could cost you big in the long run—focusing on that age-old debate: buy now or hold out? Spoiler: history says buy now. Let's get into it with some data-backed insights, easy-to-read charts, and a persuasive nudge to act.

Factors That Drive Mortgage Rate Changes

Mortgage rates aren't set in stone; they're influenced by a mix of big-picture economic forces and your personal finances. On the macro side, inflation is king—if prices for goods and services rise, lenders bump up rates to keep their returns ahead of the curve. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a huge role too; when the Fed hikes its benchmark rate to cool the economy, mortgage rates follow suit. Economic growth (think jobs and GDP) and the bond market, especially 10-year Treasury yields, are key players—strong growth pushes rates up as investors demand higher returns. Global events, like geopolitical tensions or pandemics, can also swing things by affecting investor confidence.

 

On your end, factors like credit score, down payment size, loan term, and even Phoenix's local market heat can tweak what you pay. For instance, a stellar credit score might shave off 0.5% or more. Right now, as of late 2025, 30-year fixed rates are hovering around 6.5-7%, but forecasts suggest some relief ahead—though not the dramatic drop many hope for.

 

 

15-Year Mortgage Rates Chart | Current And Past 15-Year Rates

Mortgage Rate Outlook for 2026 in Phoenix

Based on expert forecasts, 2026 looks like a stabilization year for rates, not a freefall. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predicts averages around 6.4-6.5%, while Fannie Mae sees 5.9% by year-end. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and others align with rates dipping below 6% possibly by late 2026, assuming inflation stays tame and no major economic shocks. The Fed might cut rates further, but that's assuming steady progress on inflation and employment.

 

In Phoenix specifically, our hot desert market could keep rates slightly elevated due to strong demand from retirees, tech workers, and remote pros flocking here. Why not much lower? The economy's chugging along with solid job growth in sectors like semiconductors and healthcare. If rates dip below 6%, experts warn of a demand surge—unlocking pent-up buyers and pushing prices up fast. Remember 2021? Low rates fueled a buying spree, and home values jumped 20-30% in a year. Waiting might save you a point on your rate, but you could pay tens of thousands more for the same house.

 

Historical Trends: Equity Gains vs. Mortgage Rates in Greater Phoenix Since 2000

 

Let's talk numbers from our backyard. Drawing from Cromford Report data (a gold standard for Phoenix insights), we've seen wild swings since 2000. Annual sales peaked at over 105,000 in 2021 when rates were sub-3%, but dropped to around 67,000 in 2023-2024 as rates climbed to 7-8%. By 2025, we're stabilizing at around 68,000 sales, with inventory still tight.

Here's a quick table summarizing key historical metrics for Greater Phoenix (ARMLS Residential data), updated with the latest 2025 insights:

Year Range Annual Sales (Approx.) Avg. Days on Market YOY Price/SqFt Change Notes
2000-2005 55K to 103K 40-60 days +10% to +40% peak Boom; equity soared with low rates (~5-6%)
2006-2010 73K to 53K 80-120 days -40% crash in 2008 Bust; foreclosures flooded market
2011-2019 89K to 96K 60-80 days +5% to +15% Recovery; steady equity build
2020-2022 100K+ peak 20-40 days +30% in 2021 Frenzy; ultra-low rates (~3%) drove massive appreciation
2023-2025 67K to 68K 50-70 days -10% dip then +5-10% Cooling then rebound; higher rates slowed sales but prices held firm

 

Equity has been the real winner here. Even with higher rates, Phoenix homes have appreciated at 5-10% annually on average since 2010—outpacing inflation and most investments. For example, a $300K home bought in 2020 (at ~3% rate) is now worth $450K+, building $150K in equity despite rate hikes. Waiting for a 1% rate drop might save $200/month on payments, but if prices rise 10% ($30K+), you're behind.

 

 

 

Look at days on market (DOM)—a key inventory health indicator. From the charts, average cumulative DOM spiked to 120+ in the 2008 crash but plummeted to under 30 in 2021's hot market. Today, it's around 50-60, signaling a balanced but seller-leaning market. YOY changes show volatility, but low inventory (thanks to underbuilding since 2008) keeps pushing prices up.

And contract ratios? These measure active listings vs. pending sales—over 100 is "hot," 200+ is "frenzy." We hit 300 in 2021; now it's cooler at 50-80, but if rates fall, expect a spike back to frenzy levels, making it harder to snag a deal.

Buy Now or Wait? Act Before 2026 Prices Soar

Don't sit on the fence—waiting for lower rates is a costly gamble! History screams it: rate drops unleash buyer stampedes, vaporizing inventory and igniting price explosions.

 

All-Transactions House Price Index for Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ ...

 

Phoenix's chronic supply crunch—over 120K units short and worsening—means even modest rate dips could spark 5-10% hikes in 2026.

 

Why metro Phoenix houses are so expensive, explained in one chart ...

 

With migration surging and median prices eyeing $600K, delay could crush your budget.

Do the math: Snag a $400K home now at 6.5%—just $2,500/month (P&I). Hold out for 5.9% in late 2026? That same pad hits $440K, bumping payments to $2,600—plus you kiss $40K equity goodbye. Refinance when rates fall—we've nailed it for clients time and again.

We're arming buyers now with buydowns, ARMs, and insider strategies to build equity fast in this balanced market. Spring listings offer breathing room, but the 2026 frenzy will slam the door.

Jump in—contact Radiant Group Homes at www.radiantgrouphomes.com. We deliver dream homes and wealth-building wins. Phoenix turns folks into millionaires—hesitation is your only enemy!

 

Thoughts? Comment or connect—let's map your 2026 victory!

Posted in Buying a Home
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Oct. 17, 2025

Phoenix Real Estate 2025: Why It Mirrors the 1990s, Not the 2008 Crash—Key Lessons for Buyers & Sellers

Differences and Similarities: Arizona's Current Real Estate Market vs. the 1990s and 2005-2015 – Insights for Buyers and Sellers

As a real estate professional with over 20 years of experience specializing in the Phoenix and greater Arizona market, I've navigated multiple cycles, from booms to corrections. Clients often seek historical parallels to gauge risks and opportunities, so let’s compare the current 2025 market to the mid-1990s and the volatile 2005-2015 period across key metrics: interest rates, housing supply vs. demand, days on market (DOM), and price trends. With the addition of Phoenix-specific map visuals—including conceptual representations of 1990s price distributions—we’ll highlight geographic trends to better inform buying and selling decisions in this dynamic market.

 

Historical house price index for Arizona from 1975 to 2025, showing moderate 1990s growth.

 

Interest Rates: More Alignment with 1990s Decline Than Bubble Lows

In the mid-1990s, 30-year fixed mortgage rates trended downward post-recession, averaging 8-10% early in the decade and dipping to 7.6-8% by 1995-1996. This supported a steady recovery without fueling speculation.

The 2005-2015 period saw ultra-low rates during the bubble (5.8-6% in 2005-2007), driving speculative buying, followed by even lower rates (3.8% by 2015) to aid recovery post-2008 crash.

In 2025, rates are easing to around 6.3%, down from highs above 7%, mirroring the 1990s’ controlled cooling more than the bubble’s low-rate frenzy or post-crash stimulus.

Metric 1990s 2005-2015 2025
Average 30-Year Fixed Rate 7.6-10% (declining) 3.8-6% (low in bubble, lower in recovery) ~6.3% (easing)

Housing Supply vs. Demand: Echoes of 1990s Balance

The 1990s had elastic supply in Arizona, with builders leveraging abundant land to meet demand, avoiding major shortages. Demand grew steadily from post-recession migration, maintaining balance.

The 2005-2007 bubble saw surging demand outstrip supply, followed by a 2008-2011 glut from foreclosures and overbuilding. By 2012-2015, supply tightened during recovery.

Today, Arizona faces a shortfall (~53,000 units), but inventory is rising—over 45,000 homes for sale statewide (up 13% YoY) and around 25,000 active listings in Phoenix metro as of October. Demand is cooling due to affordability, resembling the 1990s’ shift toward equilibrium more than the bubble’s extremes.

Metric 1990s 2005-2015 2025
Supply/Demand Elastic, balanced Low in bubble, glut in crash, tight in recovery Shortfall, inventory up 13% YoY; demand easing

Phoenix Map Visual: Inventory Distribution (2025) This map shows active housing inventory changes compared to pre-pandemic levels, with Arizona at +30%, indicating a surge in listings statewide that impacts Phoenix metro.

 

Active housing inventory shift map for U.S. states, July 2019 vs. July 2025, highlighting Arizona’s +30% increase.

 

Days on Market: Lengthening Like 1990s, Not Crash Extremes

In the 1990s, Phoenix DOM was estimated at 30-60 days in a balanced market, with slight extensions during early-90s softness.

During 2005-2007, DOM dropped below 30 days amid hot demand, spiked to 100+ days in the 2008-2011 crash, and normalized to 40-60 days by 2015.

In 2025, Phoenix DOM averages 62 days, reflecting increased buyer choice—similar to the 1990s’ adjustment phase, not the crash’s stagnation.

Metric 1990s 2005-2015 2025
Average DOM (Phoenix) 30-60 days <30 in bubble, 100+ in crash, 40-60 in recovery 62 days

Price Trends: Mild Dip Like Early 1990s

Phoenix prices in the 1990s rose 28-56% over the decade, with a mild <5% dip in the early-90s recession. Central areas saw ~3.2% declines from 1990-1992, followed by steady growth. Neighborhood-level data from that era highlights affordability contrasts: central and historic districts like Garfield and Coronado experienced softer pricing during the dip, while expanding suburbs in the East Valley (e.g., Mesa) and North Phoenix saw earlier recovery and moderate appreciation due to migration and development. Overall, the market avoided extremes, with median prices climbing from around $85,000 in 1990 to $130,000 by 2000, reflecting balanced growth.

The 2005-2015 era was volatile: prices doubled from 2000-2007 ($100k to $217k average), crashed 50-56% by 2011, and rebounded 50%+ by 2015.

In 2025, Phoenix prices are down 4.6% from 2022 peaks (median ~$450,000), with 4-6% appreciation forecast—aligning with the 1990s’ post-dip stability, not the 2005-2015 rollercoaster.

Metric 1990s 2005-2015 2025
Price Change +28-56%; <5% early dip +100% bubble, -50% crash, +50% recovery -4.6% from peak; 4-6% growth forecast

Phoenix Map Visual: Price Trends by Area (2025) This map illustrates price cut percentages across Phoenix neighborhoods, showing higher reductions in areas like South Phoenix (48.7%), indicating buyer leverage in certain zones.

 

Phoenix AZ housing market price cuts map for 2025, showing percentages by neighborhood.

 

Phoenix Map Visual: Price Distribution by Neighborhood (Mid-1990s) This graph represents mid-1990s price trends in Phoenix, with tiered indices showing low-tier homes at milder growth, highlighting central dips and suburban recovery.

 

Case-Shiller tiered home price indices for Phoenix, AZ from 1990 to 2012, focusing on 1990s trends.

 

Overall: Stronger Parallels to 1990s Stability

The 2025 market aligns more with the 1990s: declining rates, rising but manageable inventory, lengthening DOM, and mild price corrections leading to steady growth. The 2005-2015 period’s speculative bubble, severe crash, and uneven recovery contrast with today’s stricter lending and undersupply, preventing such extremes. Arizona’s job growth and migration bolster resilience, echoing the 1990s.

Actionable Lessons for Buyers:

  • Leverage Easing Rates for Negotiations: Use online mortgage calculators (e.g., on Bankrate or NerdWallet) to model payments at current 6.3% rates. Pre-approve for a loan to strengthen offers, then negotiate seller-paid closing costs (up to 3-6% of price) or repairs based on inspections—aim for 2-5% off list in balanced areas like East Valley.
  • Focus on Affordability to Avoid Speculation: Run a detailed budget analysis including property taxes (~1% of value in Phoenix) and HOA fees; target homes where payments are <28% of income. Research comps via Zillow or Redfin to ensure you're not overpaying, unlike 2005 bubble chasers.
  • Capitalize on Mild Dips for Long-Term Gains: Identify undervalued neighborhoods (e.g., West Valley suburbs with slight growth) using heat maps; buy now with a 5-10 year hold plan, as 1990s buyers saw 28%+ appreciation. Schedule home tours in high-inventory zones for better selection.

Actionable Lessons for Sellers:

  • Price Competitively to Minimize DOM: Obtain a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) from a local agent; set list price 3-5% below recent comps in your neighborhood to attract multiple offers within 30 days. Monitor weekly feedback and adjust if no showings in the first two weeks.
  • Stage and Offer Concessions for Appeal: Invest $1,000-3,000 in professional staging (declutter, neutral paint, curb appeal enhancements); include incentives like rate buydowns or home warranties in listings. Use high-quality photos and virtual tours to stand out, echoing 1990s success in balanced markets.
  • Time Sales Proactively for Optimal Results: List in early fall (like now in October) before winter slowdown; prepare by fixing issues pre-inspection to avoid delays. If inventory rises further, sell sooner to capture current demand—aim for a 98% list-to-sale ratio by being flexible on terms.

 

With Phoenix-specific trends visualized—including 1990s price maps—clients can better target neighborhoods: central for value in dips, suburbs for growth. Contact me for tailored strategies to navigate this market effectively.

Posted in Market Updates
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Posted in OPENHouse Podcast
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Arizona Earnest Money Explained: How Much You Should REALLY Offer!

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